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If you throw three dice at the same time, the probability that all of them show "one" is 1/216. |
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If you throw three dice at the same time, the probability that all of them show "one" is 1/216. |
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Once upon a time, Heihachiro Togo said. "A cannon that never miss the target is more superior than 100 cannons that can hit the target once in 100 bombardments." Do you think it right? I think it wrong. Because the excellent cannon will be broken by a shell fired from one cannon of 100. "Bravo" army has 100 cannons that can hit the target once x bombardments. On the above condition, hit rate of Bravo side cannons is... 1st attack...100/x 2nd attack...100/x+(100-1)/x 3rd attack...100/x+(100-1)/x+(100-2)/x . . . If Bravo army's cannons can hit the target once in 1000 bombardments, Alpha army's cannon will be broken within 11th attack. Because hit rate of Bravo's cannon is 1045/1000 at the 11th attack. Bravo will win and over 89 cannons will be left. If Bravo army's cannons can hit the target once in 5000 bombardments, Alpha army's cannon will be broken within 91th attack. Because hit rate of Bravo's cannon is 5005/5000 at the 91th attack. Bravo will win and over 9 cannons will be left. Bravo certainly loses one cannon by Alpha's cannon at every each bombardments. So, Bravo can bombard 100 times till every cannons will have been broken. 1+2+3+4+...100=5050. Hit rate of Bravo is 5050/x in the end. Well, Alpha and Bravo will be equal if Bravo's cannons can hit the target once in 5050 bombardments. But do you feel it really equal? I think Heihachiro Togo wanted to tell "We have to fight seriously". Uh... My English knowledge is too short to explain mathematical things. If you can read Japanese, please read Japanese version. |
| Japanese Admiral about 100 years ago. Those days, Japan had fought with Russia. |